Wednesday, February 15, 2012

The Leadership of AAPL - A Potentially Dire Signal Is Issued

Very often when an index begins to lose leadership from its general the entire complex soon finds itself in big trouble.  If there was ever an index that had a singular more important hard-core heavyweight leader than the Nasdaq 100 has in AAPL, I’d like to know what index that was.   AAPL makes up a full 17% of the market capitalization of the entire $NDX.  So obviously when an enormous corporation like AAPL starts to take a bit of a bruising, it behooves us to take a real close look at what’s going on.

The enormity of the effect that AAPL has on the entire $NDX can’t be overstated.  Only last April its weighting had been reduced from 22% to 12%.  Today, only 10 months later, that weighting has made another astonishing burst back up to 17%.  The only other heavy hitters in any index that I’m aware of which even comes close to having the weighting that AAPL has, are Simons Property Group which makes up approximately 10% of IYR (real estate ETF) and IBM which makes up about 12% of the DOW.  With a market cap. of $446 billion, AAPL is now slightly greater than twice the size of IBM.  The bank account?  With $98 billion cash on hand, AAPL now sports a cushion 6 times that of IBM.  If AAPL really wanted to buy something nice they could certainly afford it.  May I suggest Greece?

Before we dive in, just a few notes for clarification.  I don't mean to insult anyone here, but it has come to my attention that there are some people whose eyes glaze over when dealing with a chart that is made up from a ratio.  There's nothing to it really.  In fact, all currency crosses are the same thing... just a ratio:

a)  When viewing ‘any’ ratio chart, think of it as a ‘leadership gauge’.  In all cases, what we’re really doing is dividing the component on the left side of the ratio (the ‘numerator’), by the component on the right side.  In this particular instance, AAPL is the 'numerator' and is 'the component being judged' for leadership and not the Nasdaq.  But of course the ultimate goal of any
division operation is to generate the "quotient".  It answers the question "How many AAPLs can we buy with one unit of NDX?"  We then put that quotient on the chart in the form of the ratio itself... the candlesticks.  What we're really after is to reveal what the ratio is doing and what it means for the broader index itself.  The purpose of this study is not to discern when to buy or sell AAPL, but the NAS.

b)  In order to improve the ‘viewability’ of a ratio-style chart, I’ve changed the way I display them from the method I used to employ, in order to make them far less "busy"..  Rather than to overlay the two individual comparators behind the ratio itself, I’ve placed them in the upper section of the chart in separate panels so that they appear as individual line charts.  But the all-important ratio, the subject of our focus, is still shown in the heart of the chart as candlesticks.  In every ratio chart, any indicators that are displayed pertain to the ratio itself and not to either of its components.

Again, I apologize to those who already understand how ratios charts work, but out of respect for our friends who have been a bit reluctant to admit they didn't know, I just wanted to offer that bit of clarification.  We start by taking a look below at the weekly chart of the ratio between Apple and $NDX:

AAPL:$NDX - Weekly - Click here for a full blown live and updating version which includes some indicators.  The daily chart can be found here and a much closer look at the daily can be found here.

The annotations on the chart above make it relatively easy to spot the more important observations but the most obvious takeaway is the fact that the ratio itself has been steadily rising for over three years.  This may seem like a fairly obvious conclusion but why is it such a big deal?  Because as with any other ratio analysis, any sideways move or move lower in the ratio betrays the diminishing strength of that leadership.  In almost all cases, loss of that leadership is not readily apparent when we look at the individual components.  And in the case of AAPL, considering that over the past 10 months it has risen from a 12% weighting in the Nasdaq 100 to the current 17% weighting, this really is a very important relationship to focus on.  I suppose that's why I published the first installment of this article almost a year ago.

When we zoom in on the daily chart below we also check the upper panels to notice what is happening with the trend lines (yellow) of the individual components.  [You will be able to see them when you click the live link].  What is most notable is that $NDX broke below a major trend line during last summer's correction and has risen to retest it 3 times.  At the very least, we are alerted to the fact that the momentum in the $NDX itself is waning  At the same time we see that AAPL has never broken its own uptrend line and has in fact exploded to the highest point above that trend line in its history.  It threatens to go parabolic.  And of course this is because AAPL is an outstanding corporation.  The largest and most cash rich corporation in world history if I'm not mistaken.  But as blasphemous as it seems to say... those facts are totally irrelevant to this analysis.  Because what we're looking for is not how strong AAPL is, but whether or not it continues to lead the $NDX.  All we're looking for is for the movement within the ratio.  It could theoretically even be a case where AAPL is rising but the ratio is dropping.  It simply doesn't matter because when the ratio drops, the NAS drops.

AAPL:$NDX - Daily - Click here for a full blown live and updating version which includes some indicators.  Click here for a much closer look.   The weekly chart can be found here.

And as you can see in the daily chart above, today was a rather serious "OOPS" day.  That is a very, very bearish candle.  It is both a "bearish inverted hammer" with an unusually long body (added bearishness) and a "bearish engulfing" pattern all in one day!  Not only that, but it occurred at a time when there were severe negative divergences in the MACD and RSI.  Here's a much closer look at what transpired in the ratio today (February 16). Needless to say, that is a nasty, nasty candle... something tops are made of to be sure.  However, further confirmation is definitely required before anybody could be confident that the top for AAPL is in place.  It sure looks like it is, but... it's not confirmed.

So we take a look at the daily chart of AAPL itself to see what could possibly have caused such a bearish development in the ratio.

AAPL -  Daily - Click here for a full blown live and updating version which includes some indicators. 

And lo and behold, as everyone knows by now, AAPL had a rather nasty day.  But as it turns out, AAPL incurred a far worse day today than it has seen in any single week in the past 4 years or more, except for 3 occasions when it had an entire week that was as bad as today alone.  The monster corporation dropped an incredible 5.6% off its intra-day high on triple the average daily volume prior to today.

I'd like to make one thing quite clear at this point.  The objective of this analysis is not to determine when AAPL has reached its zenith... but simply to observe what is happening with the ratio itself.  Of course it's always good to know what has transpired with the two components of a ratio but again, I must emphasize that it whatever it was that caused a ratio to drop, it really is irrelevant to the study.   When a hurricane is coming I don't particularly care 'why' it's coming.   In past instances, when the AAPL:$NDX ratio began to head lower, the peak in the $NDX was 'already in'.  This might be the first occasion when both peaked on the same day.  That still remains to be seen since we really only witnessed the very initial warning today.

Just a quick note or two on that very topic.  There's no way I could call a top in AAPL based on today's action alone.  We would need to at least see the MACD confirm by rolling lower, accompanied by a sell signal from the stochastics.  Those two events will happen very, very quickly.  If I were an institution holding AAPL stock I'd bail out of it immediately.  If I were a bearish minded investor ("If"... that's funny) I would hesitate on shorting that rocket until I saw the 6 day moving average roll lower as well.  By remaining that cautious a bearish investor would certainly miss the very top.  But that's the price one has to pay for confirmation.  Consider it as cheap insurance.

Well there you have it... the first sign that the ratio may be in trouble.  If it continues to roll lower in the coming days you can bet your bottom dollar that the peak in equities is behind us.



  1. Brilliant AR....It looks like the shorts will be coming out of the summer drawer soon.

  2. Excellent analysis! You have the potential to become a major TA blog, because you post information that is uniquely different from the sameness of other sites. Congratulations on this.

  3. Very nice analysis. AAPL looks to be the final canary to drop.  At least for the ST to IT.

    As a side note, as I think about AAPL, it is an investor's safe haven.  A huge moat of cash protecting it from economic calamity.  A huge moat of differentiation from competitors.  If you're a retiree forced out of bonds because their yield is abysmal (thanks, Ben), AAPL looks great from a FUNDAMENTAL perspective.  But, as you point out, and as I have learned, the technicals tell a big story.

  4. Is there an echo in here?  Really love this study AR!

    I'm so gun-shy from recent weeks (months?  years?) that I'm not sure I'll be comfortable until that Mar2009-Jun2011 AAPL:$NDX tl breaks.  That big red AAPL volume bar is quite the sight for sore bear eyes though...

  5. Thanks Scotty.  It really does make me feel pretty good when people go to the trouble to read what I've gone to the trouble to write.  Yeah, it sure looks like the sorts will be coming out of the drawer soon.  I've been wearin' mine for a while already.  Did I mention I don't like trolls Scotty?  If they ever come around here they're gonna have to deal with me........

  6. Thanks buddy.  It's really nice to see you drop in here.  You're the first Canuck to do so.

    You know, I had no interest in even starting a blog.  About 2 years ago a lady named Andrea Sharp from San Diego who I didn't even know encouraged me to write more often after seeing some of the stuff I was submitting just as a commenter.  Then an author (of a novel) who goes by the name of Mayascribe did the same thing.  Then John Lounsbury.  Then 3 websites asked me to write for them all in the space of one week.   Andrea even offered to set up a blog for me because I didn't have a clue how to do it.  She said she would do it for me just to give me my own space to write, urging me to share my style.  For some reason all of them said they liked my style.  My style of writing, my style of analysis and they humour.  They liked how I throw humour in from time to time.  That's a flaw in my character... I just can't help the humour thing.  And I refused them all for 2 years.

    But Danno's site pushed me over the edge.  I mean that site has gone so downhill that I'm just stunned by it.  Since I started this thing I've had to learn how to control the trolls.  In fact before I installed the Disqus thing I investigated the troll gun.  JW at TrendXplorer was instrumental with helping me with that because he'd just started his blog and he'd just gone through it.  And as you might have guessed,  the very first commenter to ever post here was Wagner and I shot him right in the face.  Felt great.  He hasn't been back since.  He may have tried, I dunno... nor do I care.  All the same tools are available to Danno but he either doesn't know how to use them and is just shy to admit it or he has a death wish for his site.  One or the other.  I've offered to tell him how to do it via email... but to no avail.

    So I don't envision this bog as growing much because I don't offer "something every day" like most sites do.  I write when I have the time and when the mood hits me.  Seriously, it hits me right out of the blue and I put something together.  I find it so incredibly easy to do.  Hell, to be honest I never even realized I had any writing skills.  But the people I named above, all of them, said "What the hell are you talking about?  You've got great writing talents".  Eventually, after two years of hearing it I started to believe them, lol.  And here I are :-)

    Yeah, you hit on one thing I'm kind of proud of.  I sure am not like most other people.  I march to the beat of my own drum that's for damned sure.  I always have.  I've always been defiant as hell of authority and tyranny.  I hate bullies.  I've beaten a couple of 'em up in my lifetime too, lol.

    I've created a kind of apub due to the fact that people don't really know where to leave a comment sometimes, either for myself or somebody else.  It's kind of a catch-all place for all of us.  Anybody can leave a message in there.  It hasn't been very busy but it's there.  Don't forget to hit the tab at the top of the page to see a few videos.  I highly recommend the fight between BoboM and Wagner, as well as "The Banker", "Il Volo" and... and the rest of 'em, lol

    But thanks so much for the generous words.  They "do" make me feel good.  Thanks man.  And don't be a stranger.

  7. Hi Dave.  It's nice to see you here for the first time too.  Cramar is a buddy of mine from another site but he just dropped in here for the first time as well.  Yeah for sure, I think that most investors look at AAPL as perhaps one of the safest places to store some money.  There's no doubt about it, with $98 billion in the bank (OMG that's a lot of money.  It just dawned on me, lol) they won't be going Greek any time soon.  Absolutely, the fundamentals of AAPL are stunning.  But as a chartist I could care less.  I don't mean to sound flippant about it, but the fundamentals just don't matter when the market is ready to change direction.  I just want to see what the price is doing, what the market internals are doing, etc.  The technicals definitely give clues that no amount of fundamental info or Steve Leisman could impart to us.

    By the way, Pretzel was in here a while back.  You can see that conversation in the pub.  That was a month ago just as this blog was getting going and I didn't even have Disqus installed yet.  So the comments weren't threading the way we like them to.  So Pretzel and I are pretty cool with each other.  A lot of respect going both ways.  I love his site man, I really do.  It was one of 2 that I added to my blogroll to get it started.

    It's nice to see you here.  I've got some sensational friends from other sites, some of whom are trickling in here now.  You'll find 'em to be a great bunch.  So feel free to drop in any time.  And thanks for your support over at Mr. P's.  That's much appreciated :-)

  8. Zimmer, if there's one thing I can guarantee you with 100% certainty, it's that you're not alone in that gun-shyness problem.  We've all been shot so many times that we all feel it.  My problem is that I have a nasty bias that I'm working very, very hard to get over.  In all honesty, the worst thing that ever happened in my trading life is that I woke up to reality.  I found out where money comes from.  I found out that it can disappear back into the void that it was born from.  I found out that one bankruptcy can spur on another.  All that stuff has tainted me to be expecting the end of days to happen tomorrow.  And all the while, my own TA was telling me to go long.  If I could just get over that problem, I'd be a hell of a lot better off than I am.  One day in March 2009 I made $21,000.  And I felt pretty good about it.  And that's the last thing I remember, lol.

    You bet, that red candle is somethin' else alright.  It's a start.  There are some key levels coming up soon, some of which you yourself have pointed out.  I have an honest hunch that they're going to fail.  I really think we're headed lower real soon... as in "it's happening in the futures even as we speak" kind of "soon".  But Europe opens in 5 minutes so there's the obligatory little screw job going on although I don't think it'll last any longer than about 2 minutes and 15 seconds into their trading day.

    Have a great night there stinky, and thanks for keeping me company here.

  9. Amen brother.

    Struggling with bias is not the problem--refusing to acknowledge that we struggle with bias is.  That's my bias, anyway.  I long to go back to sleep.

    If I had to blindly pick between fighting a guy that'd been shot and someone who hadn't, I take the guy who hadn't. Patience is a virtue.

    I appreciate you allowing me to stink this place up.  Cheers, man.

  10. Very few people are able to overcome that bias you are quite sensible wrestling with AR. We can't all be Jesse Livermore but then again I'm sure most of us would prefer not to end our days broke and blowing our brains out in a hotel cloakroom either. Obviously the price of that internal 'quarrel' can be very, very high...

    Your comment about a certain rewarding day in March '09 had me thinking back to a similar day in the late summer of '08. In retrospect I would have to say that were I ever again to experience one of those 'pinch me' days I would immediately sell everything, go to cash and wait and watch. If it seems too good to be true it probably is and those remarkable gains should be jealously preserved!

    As for the predominance of Apple I wonder how it compares with RCA as a darling stock because it seems when 'Radio' finally broke that was it for the 'Roaring Bull' market of the 20s. Whenever this much interest becomes concentrated in one investment trouble cannot be far away as a lack of diversity (like in nature) is just not very healthy in the long run. Ah for the days of the Nifty Fifty...

  11. Hahaha... hetty, your final sentence just made me burst out with laughter.  No offense, but that avatar isn't Zim's.  It's the default avatar I selected for this site for people who haven't gone to the trouble of registering with Disqus (or Blogger, I'm not even sure which).  I thought people would maybe be inspired to get registered with their own avatar instead of having that "assface" default one, lol.

    Yes, that struggle with internal biases is a demon of a thing to deal with.  Strangely, the people who are eternally bullish don't have that problem.  They just took the red pill and go through life totally blind to the dangers and the realities.  They're usually rewarded with the praise of being a "great trader".  My ass... they're simply lucky to have been dodging bullets that they don't even realize are buzzing right past their ears.  Anybody who saw me make that statement would call it "sour grapes" on my part.  Nothing could be further from the truth... it's just reality.  They're going to find that out the hard way.

    I really like your analogy about "lack of diversity (like in nature)".  I'd never thought of it that way, but doesn't nature have a wonderful way of reverting things back to the way they should be?  Fire is one of her tools (like in Greece).  A Greece fire?  Ewwww, I shouldn't have said that.

    The next time you have one of those "pinch me" days (and you will), please come up here and pinch me as well.  Because you're absolutely right about going to cash after landing a windfall, just take a few days off, a deep breath and think things over very, very carefully.  Here's to ya!

  12. As imitation Homer would say (on the avatar): Da-Oh!

    Cheers (That must be a home brew with all those hops in the pic) 

  13. Yeah, probably a home brew.  I just loved the picture so that's the one I selected for the pub type space I created.  It's just a kind of catch-all place to leave a comment.  The problem is that I don't write something new every day, so people don't really know where to drop off a comment to myself or one of our other friends.  It hasn't been a very busy spot but at least it's there.  It's a nice alternative to another site which has been reduced to not much more than troll central.  On a bit of a humorous note you might want to check the comments at the bottom of the page with the picture of the guy with a pair of panties on his head.  That pretty much portrays what I think of trolls.

  14. If life gives you apples...make strongbow. 

  15. If life gives you grief... drink strongbow.  If it does not give you grief... drink strongbow anyway.

  16. Dam. Now I'm really thirsty.   None in the house.  Might have to make a run. Cheers AR !

  17. WELL!? Either AAPL's rally will fail or it will take out yesterday's high. I had a bad feeling with the chart last night (a-b-c) and was just hoping that it would open down this morning so I could dump puts. Sold 2/3 of my position into the weakness and was thankful for it!

    Enjoy the REFRESHING tone here. Hopefully the members will grow in number over time. I want to hear contrary opinions from successful people, but some people just don't want to be civil about it on Danno's blog. It's an ego thing! Dan is doing everyone a disservice by not laying down the law—either be civil and STOP attacking other people, or YOUR GONE!

  18. I think I stumbled across one of your troll executions in progress awhile ago...It was as entertaining as watching my late former-Nazi ex-mother-in-law scurry back to her hotel room from the lobby restaurant, after she mixed up her IcyHot with her Preparation-H (the former was placed where the latter was supposed to be applied). That's the day I learned that God really does have a sense of humor. By the way, I see you have a remarkable likeness of her as your first photo in this article.

  19. You know what really has my focus though is the fact that even though AAPL regained 1/6th of what it lost yesterday from its high, the ratio still fell today.  That's really what I'm after with this particular analysis.  But for your sake I hope AAPL continues to drop.  It just got that much closer today to the first MA rolling over on the AAPL chart too.  And one day closer to the MACD rolling lower.  It all takes a bit of time but it's so hard to say if AAPL's run is over or not.  So far, the momentum is still waning.

    Oh man, the other blog has just about hit rock bottom.  Wagner is posting under about 25 different aliases on a regular basis now.  So is Lacour.  I think they're the same person.due to the similarities.  Both of them hate Canadians.  Both of them have followed me to different sites and spewed their venom under aliases and I've caught both of them at it.  In Wagner's case I displayed that evidence on "troll central" and the regulars there just ignored it.  To be honest, I'm just as disappointed in my "friends" over there as I am in the trolls.  There's no denying it, it's Danno's fault that he won't clean the joint out.  I'd hate to see what his house looks like.  Don't get me wrong, I like the guy in some ways.  I have nothing against him other than that from the standpoint of allowing his visitors, both past and present, to get totally harassed in his house is unforgivable.

    All he needs to do is pull out the troll gun and use it "once" per troll.  Which is exactly what I did with the very first person to ever post a comment here... the fool Wagner who didn't believe me when I said I'd shoot him right in the face.  I did just that and he's gone, forever.  So yeah, you can always post in peace in this joint, lol.

  20. Ass like a face here. I was wondering yesterday if Apple was doing that to the market or vice versa. Looking at Apple today I got my answer. I would just ignore that shit AR and steer completely clear of ad hominem comments etc. Why stoop to that level? Just keep it measured and dignified and forget about the trolls. By the way where were all these yo-yos in March 2009?

  21. I appreciate your comments on the trolls Hetty.  But it's quite a different story when one troll takes a swipe at me, then proceeds to give himself 20 "likes" to make it appear that the entire board has turned against me.  Hell, I don't even have 5 enemies 'anywhere'.  But my friends on the board don't know that, so the damage to my reputation is far worse than you think.  The actions of those assholes has even gotten Disqus to believe that I'm a spammer.  Of course that is due to the fact that the irresponsible owner of the blog won't even go to the trouble to retrieve my comments from the spam bin and in doing so, correct the Disqus spam filters.  If he would just have the common courtesy to just do that, then my troubles with Disqus would end.  But admittedly, perhaps it's a flaw in my character to defend myself.  Normally I wouldn't stoop to a low level like that but you have no idea how furious I am.  It's just best that I stay off that blog altogether.  If I didn't give a shit about my friends there, that's what I would do... just leave.

  22.  AR -

    As you know, or have at least surmised, there are several trolls at Daneric's that I despise and find myself all too often responding.  For all intents and purposes they have made his blog unreadable and I spend very little time checking it out during the day (my time is worth too much to me).

    A good friend of the family once said "don't spend time with people that drain your brain".  Words to live by, but sometimes my anger gets the better of me and I can't help but respond.

    I enjoy reading your perspective as you apply common sense to your analysis and you put forth a view that doesn't stop at "the trend is your friend".  Keep fighting the good fight but realize that if you don't even have 5 enemies 'anywhere', you're not trying hard enough!! LOL

  23. Hey there Mister.  "Surmised"?   Yeah I guess you could say I've "surmised" :-)

    If you're anything like me you'd rather not respond to those criminals at all.  But I guess if enough of my (and obviously 'your') buttons get pushed, the Irish just takes over.  You're so right Lapwolf, that blog has literally become unreadable.  With Wagner openly commenting and taunting everybody with as many as 20 aliases all on one post, I don't see how Danno can stand it.  Lacour does the same thing.  In fact I have a suspicion they are one and the same.  I know Lacour's style and Wagner's is identical. But I honestly don't think Danno knows how to stop it.  I do.  So why doesn't he accept my offer to tell him how to do it?  That sure has me suspicious let me tell you.

    I saw somebody post a prior comment from king troll in which he bragged that he had a computer loaded with an unlimited supply of IPs and that he could just continue until eternity.  I call "bullshit" because IPs aren't created in his computer nor can anybody "store" them in a computer.  They are granted by his internet supplier, one IP per machine, lol.  I know his IP address.  I know where he's posting from.  Needless to say, he's banned for life from this site and ever since his first comment when he revealed his IP address to me, the day I shot him in the face, he's never been able to post another comment here.  He's tried.  Danno could easily do the same thing.

    But just the fact that we're even discussing this topic proves your very valid point... that it's just common sense that we "don't spend time with people that drain your brain".  I have no common sense, lol.

    Thanks for the generous words about the type of stuff I "try" to offer.  As you know by now, the majority of it is just disappearing off Danno's site these days.  Therefore, the conclusion I've come to is that he no longer deserves my contributions.  Some of them have been real eye openers even for him.  At one time in the past, he expressed his appreciation for the type of perspectives I was posting.  I don't have a clue what's gone wrong with him.  I feel horrible for him to be honest.  But hey... that's not something I should drain my brain over either.

    Believe me brother, I've noticed your support for me.  And obviously I appreciate it.  Needless to say you're welcome here at any time.  I'm a bit embarrassed now about my lack of enemies problem.  I will try harder, lol.  Best of success this year bud.  Let's just make money.  If we have to go long, we go long.

  24. How do you think the stock market pencils out over the next few months, AR?

  25. Hi WB.  Logic tells me that the Greek collapse, once this god damned world full of idiots realizes that it's already behind us, makes it perfectly clear that the following debt implosion will take equities down so hard, so fast that Steve Leisman will shit his pants on national television.  Joe Kernan, who thinks CNBC is "The Joe Kernan Show" will just get up and walk out of the studio never to be seen again and Kramer will just put his nose down to his desk, sniff another line and carry on as usual.  Did you ever see the movie "Idiocracy"?  That's the world we're living in.

    But the FED, the ECB and the shadow banking system obviously have other plans.  They must have some methods they're using that we've never even heard of.  Perhaps something the aliens taught them, because I'm starting to believe we're literally living in the Matrix.  The red pill gives us the Matrix.  The blue pill gives us Idiocracy.  It's hard to win either way, lol.

    In other words, I don't know. I only understand logic and logic has been suspended until further notice.  So without logic, I admit that I'm lost since that's the only language I speak other than Engrish.  I'm so gun shy these days Warren that I don't even dare express an opinion any more.  But trust me, I took the red pill.  Two of 'em in fact.  I have a hunch you did as well.


  26. Yeah, I took the red pill in about 2000/2001...but the full effects didn't set in until about 2004/2005. Try to imagine telling people, in 2001, that the real estate collapse was coming. Try telling people in 2004/2005 that the markets would collapse ...and that would only be the beggining of the end... Like trying to tell many people today that the curent run up in the markets is a chimera and that we're just getting to the realy bad stuff. It's as if everyone took a Jim Cramer Pill or something.

     Currently, the Greek default is scheduled for the last week or ten days of March.

     For several months, I was kinda convinced that April -or more probably May- would see the start of the next big downturn. (Hell, I wasn't so sure that we'd get past December.) Now, to me, anyway, everything's pointing to March.

     But you're quite correct. The world had abandoned logic and rational behavior quite some time ago. The last time I could make any sense out of any of it, at all, was about 2009/2010. Since then, it's just been a chaotic mess...and has been spiraling out of control since that time.

     Idocracy is a very bad movie. It wasn't quite bad enough to be good, IYKWIM. otoh, a lot of people appreciate and love that type of sophomoric humor. That said, everyone should watch at least the first fifteen or twenty minutes of that movie. It does show, in graphic terms, what's going on in the world as it is today.

  27. btw, I think you're right about fast this'll happen, when it finally goes to crap. For several years, I've been telling people that when it happens, it'll go to hell in the time it takes you to pour a cup of coffee and take the first sip. When the shtf, within a few minutes, everything we thought we knew about the world will change.

  28. Oh for sure WB... it's gotten to the point now where any type of orderly pullback now is out of the question.  Because as far as I can tell, there is only one thing now that can cause the markets to pull back.  Until that day arrives the global banking monsters have made their case... it's do or die time.

  29. "It does show, in graphic terms, what's going on in the world as it is today."

    It really does.  I can't tell you how shocked I am at how the general population is literally getting dumber as time goes on.  It's not a case of just being unaware or ill-informed either.  I mean actually stupider as in literally not being able to see through the deceptions and distractions.

  30.  Exactly. We're seeing desperation, here - not planning and foresight. So far, they're getting away with it, but it's just a matter of time before the wheels fall off.

  31. That's for damned sure ... not many people think for themselves ... they seem to be parrots.  Maybe TV has ruined many minds.

  32. For sure Greg.  TV is really bad for making people tune out from reality and dive into the fantasy world of television by watching their favourite "reality show", lol.

    People absolutely are like parrots.  Some newscaster will tell them a tale that he reads from a script provided to him by the propaganda branch and they just believe it, hook, line and sinker.  Then they go out and tell their friends what they heard on the news as if it was the gospel truth.  95% of the time it isn't.  Look at the primary coverage for example.  One guy is in the lead.  Ron Paul is in second.  And all the news can talk about is the battle between the two losers who are in 3rd and 4th place.   Surely you'd think people can see through that kind of propaganda?  I mean, it's obvious the media doesn't want Ron Paul to win but to go to that extent to ignore his great success is just mind boggling.  Why some corporate giants and bankers aren't hanging from lamp posts by now is beyond my understanding.  We've got to rise up and take the world back from these monsters some how.

  33. What's up, its fastidious post regarding media print, we all be aware of media is a impressive source of data.
    My site - absolutely free online psychic readings

  34. If some one wants expert view regarding blogging and
    site-building then i propose him/her to pay a quick visit this
    blog, Keep up the pleasant work.
    Feel free to visit my blog Vacation reply

  35. Unquestionably imagine that that you stated. Your
    favorite justification seemed to be on the net the easiest factor to have in mind of.
    I say to you, I certainly get annoyed whilst other folks consider issues that they just don't understand about. You controlled to hit the nail upon the highest and defined out the entire thing with no need side-effects , other people could take a signal. Will likely be again to get more. Thanks
    Here is my blog - msn hotmail correo bandeja de entrada

  36. Way cool! Some very valid points! I appreciate
    you writing this article and also the rest of the website
    is really good.
    Feel free to visit my website :: hotmail search

  37. For most up-to-date information you have to go to see web and on
    internet I found this web site as a finest web site for
    most up-to-date updates.
    My web site: buy cheap Meratol

  38. Awesome! Its really remarkable paragraph, I have got much clear idea concerning from this post.
    Check out my web-site Abdominal exercises during pregnancy

  39. Hiya! I know this is kinda off topic however I'd figured I'd ask.
    Would you be interested in trading links or maybe guest authoring a blog post or vice-versa?
    My blog discusses a lot of the same subjects as yours and I feel we could greatly benefit from each other.
    If you happen to be interested feel free to shoot me an e-mail.
    I look forward to hearing from you! Fantastic blog by the way!
    Also visit my homepage :: account information sheet

  40. At this time I am ready to do my breakfast, once having
    my breakfast coming again to read further news.
    My webpage - adriana Lima Wallpapers

  41. Nice post. I was checking constantly this blog and I
    am impressed! Extremely useful info particularly the last part :) I care for
    such info a lot. I was looking for this certain info for a long time.
    Thank you and best of luck.
    My web page :: iphone Hotmail App

  42. Does your site have a contact page? I'm having problems locating it but, I'd like to send you an e-mail.
    I've got some suggestions for your blog you might be interested in hearing. Either way, great site and I look forward to seeing it develop over time.
    Feel free to surf my web page :: absolutely free nextel ringtones

  43. good stuff AR. as always.

  44.  couldn't agree more.

  45. hey yall. happay weekend! don't know where the week went. some really good discussion here under AR's newest writing and analysis. really and truly enjoying this blog and the peeps who come here.

     had a truly sucky trade on euraud then three good ones on usdjpy. LOL. and it TOOK three good ones to make up for the sucky one. i got married to it. i am better about that very thing but still shoot myself in the foot sometimes.

    anywhooo long weekend here in the US so will be by over the weekend to read what yall have to say. we haven't strayed more than six or so points up and down on SPX all week. hmmmmmm. not a very good risk reward if trading ES. something is going to give soon. maybe not in a P3 kind of way, but the flotation devices seem to be losing air. currencies are chopping around in ranges. i get a feeling of confusion from the markets. even the grain markets that i watch. no direction home, a complete unknown, like a rollin' stone.


  46.  yes, exactly right!

  47.  no maybe about it Greg. TV hypnotizes and lulls. So many studies done on that. I read something once talking about "sitting down and watching TV together" when in actuality people don't watch TV together. Even together you watch it alone.

     I grew up in the generation where you got kicked outside to play. Then there were those mysterious times when the TV was broken at night and you had to read a book! lol. my parents were smart. I still don't watch it much to this day. Have spent years without one. Even before internet. Just always found other things to do.

  48. Thanks Blue, and good weekend to you as well.  By the way, you left such a nice comment above but were you aware that this is an old, old article?  The regulars wouldn't see your comment here because they're over on the latest post.  You might want to copy and paste your message over there?

  49.  i'm bad with details! when this blog comes up, it always comes up to an old post instead of the newest one, so i click on what i think is the newest one in the sidebar without actually noticing a date. sheesh. this is why i'm a graphics designer but they don't let me proofread. LOL

  50. What's up, its good piece of writing on the topic of media print, we all understand media is a impressive source of data.

    My web blog abortion laws in Florida

  51. What's up, I read your new stuff regularly. Your humoristic style is witty, keep doing what you're doing!

    Feel free to visit my web page :: buy cheap meratol
    My page > buy meratol

  52. Link exchange is nothing else however it is just placing
    the other person's website link on your page at suitable place and other person will also do similar in favor of you.

    Feel free to surf to my webpage acer laptops

  53. When ӏ inіtially commented I seеm tο have clicked оn
    the -Notifу me when new cοmmеnts are aԁded- checkbox and now whеnеveг a сomment iѕ added I rеcіeѵe fоur emailѕ with the
    exaсt sаme commеnt. Perhaps thеre is а wаy уou arе able to removе me
    fгom thаt serνicе? Kudos!

    Stop by my web-ѕitе payday

  54. This site was... how do you say it? Relevant!! Finally I've found something which helped me. Thank you!

    Also visit my blog

  55. A good Slot Machines For Sale Toronto and get the best results for your
    money at AJR Construction and then contact us to set up further investments.
    These things can be researched online, depending on when you passed the exam and the National Commercial Building Contractor Examination.
    Guess slot machines for sale in california it's time to documentary weeks this year, the program will automatically be on the shortlist, but there's a good chance some will.

    Feel free to surf to my website - buy slot machines

  56. It's enormous that you are getting thoughts from this paragraph as well as from our dialogue made at this place.

    Also visit my website: rockstar squeezepage

  57. This is a topic that's close to my heart... Thank you! Exactly where are your contact details though?

    my web blog ... squeeze page

  58. It's going to be end of mine day, except before finish I am reading this fantastic piece of writing to increase my experience.

    Here is my blog ... squeeze page design

  59. I got this web page from my pal who shared with me about this
    site and now this time I am visiting this web page and reading very informative posts at this place.

    Visit my blog post ... squeeze page design

  60. We are a group of volunteers and opening a new scheme in our community.
    Your website provided us with valuable info to work on.

    You've done an impressive job and our whole community will be grateful to you.

    Here is my weblog: virility ex

  61. I am sure this article has touched all the internet viewers,
    its really really nice post on building
    up new website.

    Feel free to surf to my website - muscle growth hormone

  62. Hi, I do think this is a great blog. I stumbledupon it ;) I may come back yet again since I saved as
    a favorite it. Money and freedom is the greatest way to change, may
    you be rich and continue to help other people.

    my blog ::

  63. Quality aгticles is the main to invite the viеωeгѕ to pаy a quick
    visіt the web ѕite, thаt's what this website is providing.

    Have a look at my homepage; New Bingo Sites

  64. Great items from you, man. I've have in mind your stuff prior to and you're simply extremely magnificent.
    I actually like what you have acquired right here, really like what you are stating and the best way during
    which you say it. You make it entertaining and you still take care of to keep it wise.
    I cant wait to read much more from you. This is really a tremendous site.

    My web page :: virility ex and xtremeno

  65. What's up to every , for the reason that I am truly eager of reading this webpage's post to be
    updated daily. It contains fastidious information.

    Feel free to visit my web-site - hgh energizer

  66. Hello would you mind letting me know which web host you're using? I've loaded your blog in
    3 completely different web browsers and I must say this blog loads a lot quicker then most.
    Can you recommend a good internet hosting provider at a honest price?
    Thanks, I appreciate it!

    Look at my web blog phen375 user reviews

  67. When someone writes an post he/she maintains the plan of a user in his/her
    brain that how a user can understand it. Thus that's why this paragraph is amazing. Thanks!

    Here is my web page -

  68. I got this web site from my buddy who informed me
    regarding this website and at the moment this time I am visiting this website
    and reading very informative posts at this time.

    Here is my web site - best suplement

  69. I don't know if it's just me or if perhaps everyone else experiencing issues with your site.
    It appears as if some of the text within your posts are running off the screen.
    Can someone else please comment and let me know if this is happening to them too?
    This may be a issue with my web browser because I've had this happen before. Kudos

    My web-site ... breast actives does not work

  70. Hi there, You have done a great job. I'll definitely digg it and personally recommend to my friends. I'm sure they'll be benefited from this site.

    Feel free to visit my blog post

  71. There's certainly a lot to know about this issue. I like all of the points you have made.

    my web-site - male Pensis

  72. Saved as a favorite, I really like your blog!

    My blog: buy meratol

  73. I am not positive the place you are getting your information, however good topic.
    I needs to spend some time finding out more or figuring out more.
    Thank you for magnificent info I used to be looking for this information for my mission.

    Also visit my weblog; best Male enhancement

  74. When I initially commented I clicked the "Notify me when new comments are added" checkbox
    and now each time a comment is added I get three emails with the same
    comment. Is there any way you can remove me from that service?
    Many thanks!

    My web site ... hotmail technical support

  75. Appreciate the recommendation. Will try it out.

    Here is my page ... buy idol lip